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Jul 30 2008

ADP Nonfarm Payrolls on Tap

Published by Forextvblog under Nonfarm Payrolls



Yesterday was an amazing trading day for the USD. The USD saw bullish trends against all its currency counterparts. The increase in the greenback’s value was most notable against the EUR as the cross feel from above 1.57 to under 1.56 and against the GBP as the cross fell from the midd 1.99’s to under 1.98. The Dollar’s rally was sparked by the better than expected S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 and Consumer Confidence Index. Simultaneously, the Crude Oil prices fell sharply, which also helped the USD gain strength.

The two economic releases that were announced yesterday both helped the bullish trends by the USD. The S&P/CS HPI Composite-20, which measures the change in the price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas did drop but less than expected. More assurance was sparked by the Consumer Confidence Index which was forecasted to be lower than the previous reading, but was actually higher at 51.9.The greenback also took advantage of the drop in Crude Oil prices that occurred because of beliefs that record prices are eroding the world’s thirst for energy. The strength in the American economy was shown by the Dow Jones and S&P 500 gains of over 2% yesterday.

On tap from the US today, all eyes will be on the very important ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. This estimate by ADP, which measures the estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government, was off last month and was valued at a very low -79K. Today’s release is expected to be negative, but not as low as the previous reading and should help strengthen the USD. The other impactful release today will be the Crude Oil Inventories, which are expected to remain negative, but not as low as last week, which will be very interesting for the Crude Oil prices that are on a continuous bearish trend.

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Jun 04 2008

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Is Due Today.

Published by Forextvblog under Daily Forex Analysis



Yesterday the USD saw bullish momentum against all of its currency pairs. The USD’s value was boosted by Fed Chairman, Bernake’s hawkish speech and the better than expected Factory Orders, which were released at 1.1% compared with the 0% forecast. Against the EUR, the USD’s positive trend caused the pair to cross the 1.5500 range and trade at around 1.5450 after Bernake’s speech.

In Bernake’s speech held yesterday at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, he mentioned the greenback’s negative trend in the Forex market. Bernake rarely speaks about the USD, and yesterday the USD was a big part of his speech. Traders also took notice on his words regarding the inflation being a primary concern and further interest rate cuts being unlikely. The USD’s bullish momentum benefited again an hour later as Factory Orders beat out forecasts. The Crude Oil’s decline yesterday gave the greenback even more positive momentum.

Today is a huge news day for the USD as the very important ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will be announced as part of a batch of announcements expected topped with another speech by Bernake. The ADP estimate foreshadows the actually Nonfarm Employment Change which will officially be released on Friday. Nonfarm Productivity and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite will also be released tomorrow and will impact the USD as well. Bernake’s speech will end the USD’s trading day with volatility, but the main impact should be caused by the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite that are forecasted to be lower than the previous results and should hurt the USD’s recent momentum.

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