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Archive for May, 2008

May 29 2008

The Greenback Pushes Up Ahead of GDP

Published by Forextvblog under Daily Forex Analysis



Yesterday, the greenback saw bullish trends against most of its major counterparts following positive economic news from the U.S. The EUR\USD was traded as low as 1.5620. The USD was also bullish against the rest of the major currencies. The greenback’s daily momentum was driven by the better than forecasted Core Durable Goods Orders and general Durable Goods Orders, as both beat forecasts by at least 1%.

The USD’s bullish trend yesterday quickly developed after the news announcements regarding the Durable Goods Orders. Experts predicted the results to be worse than last month, but in both cases the actual results beat forecasts and in the Durable Goods Orders, the result was actually better than last month’s result. The other main factor that led to the incline in the greenback’s value was the fall of the Crude Oil’s price, which breached under the $127 range. As the American economy is greatly affected by the Crude Oil’s price, the latest decline in the price of Crude Oil has finally taken some pressure off the USD.

Today will be a very active trading day for the USD, as there are a lot of news announcements expected from the U.S. The first major economic news event will be the Preliminary Quarterly GDP for the 1st quarter, which is expected to rise by 0.3% from last quarter’s result. Traders should be aware of the increase in Unemployment Claims expected to be announced as well. Crude Oil Inventories and the Natural Gas Storage announcements are not expected to cause a major impact on the USD as there are both inflationary and growth implications to the results. In the evening the greenback’s volatility should increase even more as both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Fed Vice Chairman Kohn will hold speeches in different events and times.

As there are many news announcements expected today, the USD’s trading will be very active and volatile. Results are expected to be mixed, as it seems that the main positive announcements will be the Preliminary Quarterly GDP which should give the USD momentum. The wild card will be Bernanke and Kohn’s speeches which will determine the USD’s trend.

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May 28 2008

Durable Goods On Tap - High Volatility Expected

Published by Forextvblog under Daily Forex Analysis



Yesterday, the greenback saw bullish trends against most of its major counterparts. The EUR\USD went as low as 1.5670, gaining additional 90 pips vs. the EUR. Accordingly, the USD gained against the rest of the major currencies. A large portion of data was delivered yesterday from the US markets. The National Home Price Index decreased by 14.4% to the 172.12 level concluding a 15 straight months of yearly declines. However, the New Home Sales report reflected a 3.3% increase, from 509K on March to 526K on April. The report also showed that the median price of new homes in April was $246,100, up 9.1% from March. Later on, the Consumer Confidence plunged to a 16-year low, after dropping to 57.2 reading point.

Today two major indicators are scheduled on the U.S. calendar. The most crucial is the Core Durable Goods Orders, which is expected to come in at -0.4%. The second indicator is the Durable Goods Orders that should mark -1.3%. Both indicators are forecasted to be lower than their previous printings. Later, Minneapolis Fed President Stern is expected to deliver a speech. Traders are advised to look closely for clues regarding future monetary policy. Given the fact that today’s U.S. fundamental data is expected to see a declining trend, the greenback may decline as well.

From where we stand, there might be a great day to check out the calendar for the rest of the week. Additional important indicators are scheduled to be published. The Prelim GDP , Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech, Chicago PMI, Personal Spending, Core PCE Price Index and many more. Analyzing them properly may contribute to investors’ possible profits.

Though the forthcoming indices are expected to establish a falling USD trend, the decreasing Oil prices might as well have a stronger affect on the greenback. Therefore, traders should follow today’s events with extra caution.

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