Jul
30
2007
The Greenback is strengthening despite crashing US stock market.
There have been several important releases last week, especially from the struggling housing sector, that demonstrated once again the housing crisis is nowhere near over. Existing Home Sales came out weak at 5.75M, and New Home Sales disappointed at 834K. To add some fuel to the negative news fire, Core Durable Goods entered a negative territory of -0.5%. The flow of weak news from the US continued on Friday as the GDP Annualized came in at a lower than expected 2.7% and a consensus of 3.4%.
It is quite interesting to see that on top of everything else, the US stock market is weakening, as the Dow Johns dropped another 400 points, yet on the other hand, we clearly see a USD recuperation, that is slowly shaping into a rally. The Greenback is gaining strength against most majors, as the EUR/USD is now traded at 1.3640, and the GBP/USD is traded at 2.0240 after peaking at an unbelievable level of 2.0600. The main reason for that is that traders are putting their trust on the Greenback once again, as external investment is increasing, and traders are hedging risky funds with US Currency.
This week will be quite full of important news releases, as apart of the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, we also expect Core PCE, the Chicago PMI, the ISM Manufacturing, and Non Manufacturing Index. It looks as if price movement will be quite high, and there is a high probability of an additional positive move for the Greenback.
My
Forex Blog
Jul
30
2007
Daily Forex Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair is now floating around 1.3640, as the overall sentiment is quite bearish. The daily chart is showing that there is still more room to run and the hourlies are sending mixed signals. 1.3600 is now a major support that if breached will create a further move down, and confirm 1.3550 as the next target price.
GBP/USD
After a breach through the very important 2.0300 level, the signals are more bearish than ever. There is a delicate bullish cross on the 4 Hour chart that might take the pair to a moderate correction, but the pair looks as if it is safely heading south. Next target price appears to be 2.0150.
USD/JPY
There is a local consolidation around 118.50, after a massive rally down. The daily chart is showing a slowdown in bearishness, and the 4 Hour chart is confirming that although the direction is down, the momentum is not as strong as before. A preferable strategy might be to wait for a clearer signal from the daily charts before establishing a position.
USD/CHF
The pair started a moderate uptrend last week that ended with range movement of 150 pips. Both daily and hourly charts show bullish sentiments, and a distinct positive momentum. If the 1.2100 level will be breached, the move up will be confirmed, and we might see the pair return to the 1.2250 levels.
Wild – Crude Oil
There is a very distinct upwards channel forming on the 4 Hour chart, and it is now floating on the upper barrier of the channel. The Oil seems to be having difficulties breaking through the 76.90, which provides Forex traders with a great opportunity to go short at a great entry price, and enjoy the strong resistance level.
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Forex Blog
